A few days after receiving the green light from Washington, Ukraine used long-range ATACMS missiles on Russian soil between 18 and 19 November. This escalation is part of a general acceleration in the conflict, spurred on by the imminent arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, but also by a recent increase in Russian bombing. Russia is raising the nuclear spectre and threatening to retaliate against this use of missiles, which, according to its general staff, opens up ‘a new phase’ in the war. Fears of a massive bombardment of Kiev prompted the United States to close its embassy in the Ukrainian capital. In the Baltic Sea, undersea fibre-optic cables needed for NATO’s defence systems are believed to have been sabotaged. Although the exhaustion of the Ukrainian army and population seems to be leading this conflict towards a negotiated outcome in 2025, the uncertainty and anxiety of the Ukrainian president and Western leaders – led by Europe – remain.
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